The logic is simple. To fill the gap between where it is (305) and where it wishes to be (370) would require 65 additional seats. It has maxed out in North, Central and West India, with only 43 seats in this region not in its pocket.

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It may be unrealistic to assume that these regions alone can make up for these seats, as the BJP task is twofold – retain the 280 already won in these three regions on the one hand and breach the 43 not under its wings on the other.

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Some loss from the existing 280 is likely and a clean sweep of the 43 is unlikely. It is even suggested that it could well be `even stevens `- the loss is compensated by the gains in this region.

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In the Northeast the NDA alliance has 17 of the 25 seats. Here too it faces a challenge of retaining all the seats as it faces some challenges; its best bet would be to maintain a status quo in terms of numbers.

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In West Bengal and Odisha, the NDA won 26 of the 62 seats. Like in the Hindi heartland, the BJP would need to retain its seats and win from among the 36 seats not in its kitty now, to move towards its goal of 270. The competition here too, is intense as the key opponents are two state-based parties.

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The above narrative explains why without a good performance South of the Vindhyas, the goal that the BJP has set for itself remains elusive.  The NDA won 30 (BJP secured 29) of the 130 seats in the South of India.

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In Karnataka too, there can be no adding to the pool of seats as the BJP is contesting as many seats as it won. There is no scope for increase of number while there is a definite challenge of retaining the numbers.

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In Telangana, last time around,  the party won 5 seats  of the 17 seats. The Congress seems better placed in this state, given the `recentness` of its assembly victory. Some even argue that what it loses out in Karnataka it may make up in Telangana, thus keeping its tally in the two states close to where it was in 2019.

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This leaves us with the three states that BJP did not open its account in 2019 – Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. These have been three states that the BJP leadership has been concentrating on in the run up to the elections. This intensity of focus on the three states of the South is likely to be more visible as voting day approaches.

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The election schedule also allows for a staggered campaign in the South. Most conveniently, Tamil Nadu has a one-day poll on 19 April, Kerala votes a week later, on 26 April. Karnataka has its first phase on 26 April and second on 7 May.

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Then, Andhra and Telangana vote on 13 May. The two parties which are contesting in all these states – BJP and Congress, have an opportunity to elaborately plan out their election campaign and ensure that their key leaders are out in the constituencies as per the staggered dates of campaigning and voting.

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Andhra Pradesh has seen the BJP stitch an alliance with the TDP and Jana Sena. In the seat sharing the BJP has been allotted 6 seats and hopes to leverage on the alliance advantage. Five of the six BJP candidates have joined the party from YSR Congress, BJP, Congress and TDP. Winning a few seats in Andhra Pradesh is a distinct possibility.

Coming to Tamil Nadu, the BJP has positioned itself as the leader of the NDA in the state. It is contesting 19 of the 39 seats, leaving 20 seats to its allies in the NDA. It clearly has a long-term plan for the state of emerging as the leader of the alliance that will ultimately challenge the DMK led alliance. While they may be testing the political waters in 2024, the focus is clearly the decade ahead. 2024 is like a T20 match while the test match series comes later along the way.

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In Kerala it hopes for a toehold in the politics of the state through the 2024 polls. To breach the UDF-LDF direct fight across the 20 seats is its immediate aim. It hopes to weaken the UDF first and then take on the LDF. Here too, the effort began in 2014 and was sustained in 2019. This time around, the party is hoping to open its account in the state.

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The above analysis indicates that the BJP strategy in the South is to retain its numbers in Karnataka to the extent possible and make additions in Telangana. A few seats spread across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, where it drew a blank last time, would surely help in adding to the numbers in the quest for 370. Without improving its performance South of the Vindhyas, the BJP’s target would be unattainable.

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For the Congress too, the states south of the Vindhyas are critical for increasing their numbers. For them the focus is on retaining its seats in Kerala and Tamil Nadu and improving its tally in Telangana and Karnataka. Thus, a Southern comfort is the dream for both the Congress and the BJP.

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