The scrutiny of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is not limited to domestic voices; it extended to the global stage as well. So far the United States and Germany have questioned the arrest of Kejriwal and freezing of Congress' accounts.

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Amidst rising diplomatic tension the US Department of State yet again emphasised its stance on advocating for fair and transparent legal process. "We continue to follow these actions closely, including the arrest of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal", US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

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Against the backdrop of such a political landscape, the INDIA bloc will be holding a "Maha rally" at Ramlila Ground at the National Capital on March 31.

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The rally was being held to "Save India's democracy." AAP leader Gopal Rai said: "Democracy and the country are in danger. All the INDIA bloc parties will hold this rally to safeguard the country's interest and democracy."

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However, as the Opposition gets ready to march to Ram Lila Ground, the shadow of Presidents' Rule looms over the national capital adding another layer of complexity to the developing political scenario.

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Hinting at a possible imposition of Presidents' Rule in Delhi, the Lieutenant Governor Vinai Kumar Saxena said that "government in Delhi would not be run from jail." It may be recalled following Kejriwal's arrest, AAP maintained that the Delhi government "will be run from jail." Responding to LG's remark, Delhi cabinet minister Atishi  said that imposition of Presidents' Rule would be a "clear case of political vendetta."

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Atishi pointed out that the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi Act 1992 stated that "you cannot be the chief minister if you do not enjoy the majority of the House." She asked- "So under what conditions will Presidents' Rule be imposed? "Democracy and the country are in danger.

In the midst of the debate surrounding the essence of democracy, a parallel discourse has taken centre stage--the electoral repercussions stemming from Kejriwal's arrest.

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A survey published by a national magazine pointed out that while "48% of voters believe that Kejriwal's arrest will benefit BP's anti-graft campaign, 39% say it won't" At the same time the survey indicated that "52% of the voters believe that Kejriwal's arrest will generate sympathy votes."

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What might work to BJP's advantage is Delhi's split voting pattern- which means, during the last 10 years, Delhi voters have been backing different parties in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Delhi voters backed the BJP giving it all seven seats in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The same voters then backed AAP giving it more than 60 out of 70 seats in both 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections in Delhi.

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If the survey is to be believed, it presents a narrow window of opportunity for the opposition to capitalise on. However, much will depend on their strategic maneuvers and ability to resonate with the concerns of the electorate. Kejriwal's arrest has united the Opposition, which had been speaking in different voices.

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Coming out openly in Kejriwal's favour, the Opposition will try to consolidate the anti-BJP votes. It's worth recalling that during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured just over 37% of the total vote share.

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This statistic underscores the fact that a significant portion of the electorate remains outside the BJP's traditional support base. In the light of Kejriwal's arrest and ensuring political turmoil, there is potential for the INDIA bloc to tap into this sizable portion of the electorate.

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If successful, the opposition bloc could pose a formidable challenge to the BJP's dominance.

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For the BJP, the arrest has bolstered Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image as a leader committed to rooting out corruption. "Modi's stance of zero-tolerance for corruption has been reinforced by the arrest, positioning him as a strong and decisive leader," a BJP leader said.

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There's also a perception within the BJP that any external interference, such as statements from US and Germany regarding India's internal matters, would only serve to enhance  Modi's popularity among the electorate.

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The arrest of Kejriwal has also succeeded in diverting the attention of the voters from the contentious issue of electoral bonds, which had put the BJP under scrutiny as the largest beneficiary.

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A BJP leader pointed out the irony, highlighting how the national discourse has shifted dramatically towards Kejriwal's arrest, effectively sidelining discussions around the electoral bonds, Manipur among other such "uncomfortable issues." No wonder the BJP is still laughing.

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