Once a close friend of former chief minister B S Yediyurappa, Eshwarappa built Jan Sangh (the BJP's earlier avatar) in the Congress-ruled district. The duo traversed the villages in the district as well as across Karnataka to build a base for the party in the state. When he became the chief minister Yediyurappa brought Eshwarappa into his cabinet and gave him plum posts besides making him in charge of the state BJP unit.

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When Yediyurappa quit the BJP to launch a new political outfit, Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), Eshwarappa, a Kuruba leader, stayed in the BJP and tried to fill the void. They mended fences after the merger of the KJP and the BJP a decade ago.Now these friends turned foes have fallen out over Lok Sabha tickets.

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Eshwarappa received the first jolt in 2023 when he was denied a ticket from Shivamogga City for the assembly elections, with the party fielding S N Chennabasappa instead. The Kuruba leader accepted the decision in the right spirit after Yediyurappa promised a Lok Sabha ticket for his son K E Kantesh from Haveri.When that promise fell flat, an upset Eshwarappa raised the banner of revolt, slamming Yediyurappa for promoting dynasty politics by making one son an MP and the other the state party president.

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Having asserted he would contest in Shivamogga, Eshwarappa, a Kuruba, is up against Raghavendra, a Lingayat and Congress's Geeta Shivarajkumar, wife of noted Kannada actor Shivarajkumar and daughter of former chief minister S Bangarappa, the Ediga leader who belonged to the same district.The veteran leader's decision has caused concern in the party ranks.

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Eshwarappa's presence will certainly split the Kuruba and Other Backward Class vote. Raghavendra will not enjoy a smooth ride to New Delhi like he did before."Till recently, Raghavendra was exuding confidence and had not even taken the campaign seriously but after Eshwarappa entered the fray, the sitting MP has been traveling around 300-400 km daily.

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It's obvious he is worried about the impact Eshwarappa will have on the BJP's vote bank,” said a Shivamogga-based insider.

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The Shivamogga constituency has around 16 lakh voters, out of which three lakh are Ediga (the community to which Geeta Shivarajkumar belongs). Of the remaining, two lakh are Lingayats, three to four lakh SC/ST, three lakh backward classes, around one lakh Kuruba, and a sizable number of Maratha, Lambani and Brahmins.

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The Congress has its traditional votes and it has also set sights on the Ediga vote share. But both Madhu Bangarappa, a minister in the Siddaramaiah Cabinet, and his brother, Kumar Bangarappa, a former BJP MLA - both are Geeta's brothers - have been battling to swing those votes in favour of their respective candidates. Even if Eshwarappa gets around 50,000 to 75,000 votes, it could affect Raghavendra's chances.

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And in the fight between Eshwarappa and Raghavendra, Geeta Shivarajkumar might just romp home if votes are divided, insiders said.Politics does not follow simple mathematical formulae, with caste, money and muscle power coming into the picture. In the case of Shivamogga, while Raghavendra is seeking votes on development and Modi's popularit and Eshwarappa's campaign is solely aimed at defeating Raghavendra, Geeta Shivarajkumar is attempting to cash in on the Siddaramaiah government's five guarantees.

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Even though the guarantees have impacted and benefited thousands in every village, the biggest drawback for Geeta Shivarajkumar is the fact that she is seen as an outsider, and a resident of Bengaluru. She only arrived in Shivamogga a week after the announcement of her candidature. On the other hand, the doors of Eshwarappa and Raghavendra homes are open to the public at all times.Shivamogga which goes to polls on May 7 will clearly be a far more bitter battle than expected. Eshwarappa does have his limitations.

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While strong in Shivamogga city he has little presence in other segments of the constituency. Raghavendra too, might be a familiar face but the coming together of several anti-Yediyurappa forces is a challenge, with many BJP functionaries reportedly eager to end the veteran's hold on the party. Not clamping down on Eshwarappa's revolt is also being interpreted in some circles as a move in this direction from the top brass.

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Home Minister Amit Shah refusing to meet him in New Delhi on Wednesday rather than persuading him to withdraw his candidature has raised many eyebrows.In 2019, Raghavendra won by two lakh votes, improving his previous margin of victory of 52,893 votes in the 2018 by-election. With Eshwarappa standing from Shivamogga, the Kuruba leader will definitely eat into the hitherto consolidated vote that Raghavendra, could have otherwise taken for granted.

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By accident or design, Eshwarappa looks as if he may be able to jolt the three time MP from a seat that the BJP has long considered safer than most.

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