Key Factors:

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Of the eight assembly segments in Bangalore North, BJP secured five MLAs and the Congress three in the recent assembly election, giving the saffron party an apparent advantage. However, the Lok Sabha polls could witness a keen battle, especially since the BJP decided not to give a ticket to the incumbent, D V Sadananda Gowda, bringing in Karandlaje instead.

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Former Rajya Sabha member Rajeev Gowda, a first-time Lok Sabha candidate, brings a wealth of experience despite being new to electoral politics. His uncle M V Krishnappa won six Lok Sabha elections while his father M V Venkatappa was an MLA multiple times. Moreover, Gowda, a former Reserve Bank of India Director and IIM-B professor, comes from a family of freedom fighters and politicians, adding to his credentials and appeal as a candidate.

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On the other hand, Karandlaje, the sitting MP from Udupi-Chikmagalur and Union Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, is targeting her third entry to the Lok Sabha. Despite her experience, Karandlaje faces criticism as an outsider in Bangalore North.

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Expressing concerns over Bangalore's socio-economic challenges, Gowda emphasises the need for comprehensive solutions, addressing issues like traffic congestion and migrant worker welfare. He positions himself as a candidate rooted in local issues and aspirations.

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In contrast, Karandlaje frames her campaign around preserving India's cultural ethos and 'Sanatana' traditions, rallying support for BJP's ideological stance. Her appeal, however, faces scrutiny from voters who perceive her as disconnected from the local fabric.

Vote Share Dynamics:

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The Vokkaliga community, constituting a significant portion of the electorate, presents a crucial demographic factor. Both candidates, being Vokkaligas, vie for the community’s support. Additionally, the Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe with 15 percent, Christian with six percent, and Muslim community with 15 percent voter share wield considerable influence, potentially tilting the scales in favour of Gowda. In addition, insiders say that three local Congress leaders including KJ George, Krishna Byre Gowda and leaders of the Muslim community were called in by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah earlier this week and asked to ensure Prof Gowda’s victory.  

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Background and Previous Elections:

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In the 2019 elections, BJP’s Sadananda Gowda clinched victory with a margin of 1.47 lakh over Congress’s Krishna Byre Gowda. Despite low voter turnout in previous years, the electoral dynamics have witnessed shifts over time. The BJP has been victorious in the four previous elections here but the Congress is looking for a change in the voter sentiment to arrest its slide.