Congress insiders expect a 2-3% shift of the Lingayat vote to the BJP, affecting Dharwad, Gadag-Haveri, Belagavi, Chikodi, Uttara Kannada, Kalburgi, Bidar and Davangere constituencies.
The murder of a girl student in a Hubballi college campus by a Muslim youth has swiftly become an election issue in Karnataka, with the BJP pouncing on it to turn on the heat against the ruling Congress government, ostensibly with an eye on the Lingayat votes.
There has been a steady flow of VVIP visitors to the house of Neha Hiremath, the victim, over the last four days. BJP President J P Nadda met with the girl's father, Niranjan Hiremath, a Congress Councillor, on Sunday while Nadda's state party colleagues, former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, Union Minister Pralhad Joshi and another former chief minister Jagadish Shettar, had visited her house earlier.
Congress ministers Santosh Lad and Laxmi Hebbalkar as well as former minister A M Hindasgeri also met with Hiremath to offer their condolences but the ruling party seems to have bungled badly, with certain unsympathetic statements by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar and Home Minister Dr G Parameshwara not going down well with the people in general and Lingayat-Veerashaivas in particular.
After nearly three decades, Lingayats had returned to the Congress party in significant numbers in the 2023 Assembly elections but the murder of a girl from their community and the stance of the party leaders may alienate them again, observers felt.
The Lingayats are in majority in neighbouring constituencies like Dharwad, Gadag-Haveri, Belagavi, Chikodi, Uttara Kannada, Kalburgi, Bidar and Davangere. The reels of Neha being stabbed mercilessly have been circulating on the social media, angering the people.
S M Patil, a retired professor of political science, Karnatak University, Dharwad, felt such incidents would definitely have a bearing on the Congress' fortunes. “The victim belonged to the dominant Lingayat community and people are very upset about the loss of life of an innocent girl who rejected the love offer made by a Muslim boy. Gone are the days when there was no social media to spread such news across the country.
With millions following the issue on social media platforms, it will certainly have an effect on the voting pattern. The shifting of Lingayat-Veerashaiva votes from Congress to BJP cannot be ruled out,” he said, with BJP insiders saying it could see a two to three per cent shift of the Lingayat vote back to the BJP.
The Congress government has already come under fire for a clutch of recent incidents, including the bomb blast at Rameshwaram cafe in Bengaluru and assault on a shopkeeper for playing Hanuman Chalisa, with the critics accusing it of leaning towards the minorities instead of adopting a balanced approach.
The Congress leaders however ruled out any impact of the Hubballi incident on the voting pattern but their approach has come as a boon for the issue-starved BJP. Even the Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised it during his speech in Bengaluru last week and it will certainly resonate across the constituencies that will go to the polls on May 7. The Congress leadership, in contrast, seems to have failed to understand the pulse of the people of north Karnataka.
Five incidents that may affect the Congress:
1. Rameshwaram cafe blast
2. Raising of Pakistan zindabad slogan in Vidhana Soudha.
3. Attack on a shopkeeper by a group of Muslims for playing Hanuman Chalisa.
4. Assault on three persons for raising Jai Sri Ram slogan inside a car.
5. Murder of a Hindu girl by a Muslim youth in Hubballi.