Insiders in the Shiv Sena ranks who have been deeply unnerved by the split in their party, engineered by the BJP, initially believed the split had weakened Uddhav.  

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But days after the first round of voting on April 19, when elections were held in Ramtek, Nagpur, Bhandara- Godiya, Gadchiroli-Chimu and Chandrapur, there was little sign of an overwhelming Prime Minister Narendra Modi wave in the key state. Shiv Sainiks are now having second thoughts, saying the split in the Shiv Sena's vote bank was not necessarily going to benefit the BJP. And that Mumbai, in particular, was going to be a no show for the BJP and its alliance with the faction led by Eknath Shinde.

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In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena which was an ally of the BJP in the NDA alliance had won seven of the eight seats that went to the polls in the first phase. This time, hardline Hindutvavadis are unsure of retaining the same numbers in the coming phases, despite the fact that the BJP had splintered both the Shiv Sena and the NCP.

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They say that both anti-incumbency and the sympathy factor have come into play, favouring Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP leader Sharad Pawar.

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Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde who is heading the Shiv Sena faction that is allied with the BJP and seen as having betrayed the Thackeray cause, has said his party would contest 16 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats including three in Mumbai. But sources in his own faction now fear that their Shiv Sena will not be able to break the vote bank of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in Mumbai.

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“We will get the mileage of the BJP’s support and Narendra Modi’s image in the public eye but the cadre's loyalty is still with Uddhav Thackeray ,” a Shiv Sena leader told Bolindiabol.

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Eknath Shinde does command the support of the majority of the Shiv Sena legislators and MPs but he has yet to emerge as a `leader’ after  the split in the party. This is largely because, his main agenda is to shore up his own position in the party, rather than work on winning the people's support. He has re-nominated the party MPs who remained loyal to him during the revolt against Uddhav Thackeray to the 16 seats rom where his faction will stand. The BJP, fearing anti incumbency against these sitting MPs could damage the prospects of the ruling  Maha Yuti front in the state in the election, has so far, been unable to stop him.

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Interestingly, Eknath Shinde’s increased focus on Hindutva is also weakening the crucial 'Marathi Manoos ‘ plank of the Shiv Sena which would otherwise have gone automatically in favour of the Sena. The elections in Maharashtra are being fought, not on national but local issues. Neither Narendra Modi's popularity nor union home minister Amit Shah's electoral tactics have little impact here, the Shiv Sainiks say.

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Instead, Modi's targeting of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and the Congress party in his election rallies, is having the opposite effect. An uptick in Uddhav Thackeray’s appeal and with the Congress and NCP's traditional vote bank too remaining untouched, is evident in the first round of voting, where the BJP, many say has been unable to make a dent.

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Has reality struck home? Where once the BJP used to openly say that the ruling front would win 45 of the total 48 seats in Maharashtra, now the party has virtually stopped talking of the Modi wave. Its continued reliance on Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to be the face of the campaig, while sidelining  the Sena and the BJP's own local leaders in the state has dampened the mood.

The other key minus point may also stem from the fact that while the Hindu vote bank has been split between the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, the Marathas too cannot be banked on to vote only for the Maha Yuti as the Marathas now are spread across four parties  - that is the Congress, the BJP, the NCP (Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar)  and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav and Shinde).  

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Secondly, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena were expected to help the BJP. But while the VBA,  contesting about 20 seats will eat into the votes of the anti-BJP parties, Raj Thackeray, who is campaigning for the BJP - without fighting a single seat - and tasked to damage Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in Mumbai and elsewhere, may not be able to split the Shiv Sena vote at all as his hold over Mumbai is at best, minimal.

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An additional factor that could turn the BJP’s traditional voters away is also their dislike of Ajit Pawar and his faction, which had traditionally voted against the BJP ever since the Nationalist Congress Party was founded by his uncle Sharad Pawar.  Ajit Pawar's followers, who have been at loggerheads with the BJP, have no love lost for Modi. The BJP, interestingly, are holding it against Amit Shah and the deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis for bringing in Ajit. The BJP voter is unlikely to switch loyalties and vote for the Pawar nephew, sources said, particularly in Mumbai, where Shinde - like Ajit Pawar - barely has a following. This could be a further challenge for the Maha Yuti alliance.

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Eight more Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra, meanwhile, will go to the polls in the second phase on April 26 when voting will be held in Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Yavatmal-Washim, Hingoli, Nanded and Parbhani. All eyes will be on Nanded, a traditional stronghold of the Congress in the Marathwada region, and won repeatedly by former Congress chief minister Ashok Chavan, who too, crossed over and joined the Eknath Shinde- BJP alliance.