The party arrived at this decision after a quick survey which indicated an edge for Raghavendra thanks to committed voters of the saffron party in all eight Assembly constituencies that come under this parliament seat.

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Sources told this reporter that Eshwarappa was eyeing his Kuruba community which is around one lakh  votes but not all votes would go to him since Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is seen as the sole leader of the Kuruba community.

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For Eshwarappa, to bank on the Kuruba vote as he is doing, could be a miscalculation  Equally difficult is his plan to tap the Ediga community’s vote as Geeta Shivaraj Kumar, the Congress candidate for the Shivamogga seat, and daughter of former CM S.Bangarappa and daughter-in-law of the Kannada thespian, Dr Raj Kumar, belongs to the backward Ediga community. The district has a sizeable number of Ediga voters in three to four Assembly constituencies.

While the Congress candidate is sure of getting the Muslims, SCs and STs and Backward classes votes, the BJP is banking on the support of its traditional votes of lingayats/veerashaivas, Brahmins, Maratha and other sections. Both Geeta and Raghavendra are sure of their respective vote banks. Eshwarappa’s claims may not be based on reality.  

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The history of Shivamogga constituency had been that the party matters more  than individual for the voters.  Eshwarappa may be known to every one in the district but he was identified as being part of the BJP. If he contests without the BJP symbol, the voters may not identify with him.

The clinching evidence has come from a survey. After the ticket fiasco, former CM B.S.Yediyurappa and Raghavendra commissioned a survey by a private agency which submitted a report that the BJP candidate would win even if Eshwarappa contested as an independent candidate.

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The votes which he gets would come from the Kuruba community that may eat into the Congress party. After seeing this report, the Delhi leaders were briefed about the same. Based on the report, the high command asked the state leaders not to convince or cajole Eshwarappa not to contest.

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He would be sidelined in the party even if he agreed not to contest against Raghavendra, insiders said, as “he has not been forgiven for the damage caused to the party for his unrelenting attack on the BJP’s grand old man, Yediyurappa and his sons.”

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