If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was reinventing Hindutva as a subaltern ideology, the Samajwadi Party(SP) has unleashed its newly formed "Ambedkar Vahini" to ensnare the Dalits. With her base shrinking and on the verge of an existential crisis, the BSP chief, Mayawati has now decided to embark on a solo adventure.  But then there is a "method to her madness" some political pundits observed. It was claimed that BSP going solo "will only help the BJP" and "upset" the electoral arithmetic of the INDIA bloc.

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Taking the X route, Ms Mayawati stated on Saturday-"Speculation that BSP could join the INDIA bloc or have any alliance is misleading. BSP will fight on its own strength..."

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The other Dalit leader, Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan has also decided to contest on his own. Azad will be contesting from Nagina Lok Sabha constituency.

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Incidentally, BSP's politics revolve mainly around Dalits, OBCs and Muslims. Mayawati's move, therefore to go it alone in UP could divide this vote bank. "And this will only help the BJP, " a senior Congress leader said.

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It was further pointed out that while the top BJP leaders have been lashing out at the Opposition, particularly Congress and SP, it has maintained a discreet silence on Mayawati. There are rumours floating, that following a series of pending cases, Mayawati has "no other option" but to "covertly aid the BJP."

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Meanwhile the Dalit outreach by the political parties in UP, comes at a time, when tension is running high over the death of a Jatav teenager in police firing in Rampur district. Against this backdrop of heightened emotions, BJP heavyweights have taken to the streets to assuage the frayed nerves of the aggrieved. To address their concerns, the BJP chief, JP Nadda accompanied by senior Dalit leaders addressed a Dalit Mahasammelan in Agra.

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UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath echoed this sentiment by organising a similar meeting aimed at placating the prevailing Dalit anger.

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For the BJP,  Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha berths holds the key to return to power for the third successive time. While the BJP won 72 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, the party's tally came down by 10 seats during 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Similarly, in the 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP won an overwhelming 312 of 403 Assembly berths. But the numbers shrunk in 2022 Assembly polls with the party winning 255 seats.

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Interestingly, the SP which managed only 47 assembly berths in 2017 Assembly elections, increased its tally to 111 seats during 2022 Assembly polls in the state. It was Congress and BSP which fared miserably during the 2022 Assembly polls. In 2017 UP Assembly polls Congress had won seven seats and BSP 19. In the 2022 Assembly polls the Congress failed to even open its account and the BSP got just one seat.

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In such a political landscape, BSP going solo also offers BJP a huge opportunity to eat into Mayawati's Jatav vote bank. Even though the Jatavs were simmering with anger following the recent death of the teenager from the community, Mayawati's adventurism "might push the Jatavs towards the BJP," a saffron leader observed.

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According to the 2011 census, the Jatav community comprises 54 percent of UP's total 22,496,047 SC population. The bulk of the Jatavs used to form the support base of the BSP. The electoral trends, however, indicated that since 2014, with Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi taking charge, the Dalit sub-castes and the Jatavs have been moving towards the BJP.  In the book-"Dalit Politics in the time of Hindutva" by Sudha Pai and Sajjan Kumar it's stated that there are 66 Dalit castes "constituting 21 percent of the population."  After Jatavs the Pasi community holds the second position with 15.9 percent followed by Dhobis ,Koris, Balmikis, Gonds, Dhanuks and Khatiks among others.

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As for shifting of Dalit votes, during the 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged over 40 percent of the "other Scheduled Castes" votes and over 20 percent of the Jatav votes.  A senior party leader claimed that successive elections in the state after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls "have shown that the Jatav vote bank has been rapidly shifting towards the BJP."

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Besides trying to mobilise the Dalit votes under its "welfarism" schemes, the BJP has also embarked on a move to "reinvent Hindutva as a subaltern ideology". BJP Rajya Sabha MP and former UP deputy chief minister, Dinesh Sharma recently told the media that "it was a Dalit, who had placed the first brick for the Ram temple in Ayodhya."

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Dr Bizay Sonkar Shastri, senior BJP leader and former chairman of National Commission for Scheduled Castes pointed out that among the  karsevaks who had reached Ayodhya from different parts of the country, more than 70 percent were Dalits and OBCs." He asserted: "Like others, Dalits are also Rambhakts."

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The party has been pushing its agenda of "ideological inclusion" of the Dalits  by continuously building small temples of their local deities and observing anniversaries of their saints. Last month the BJP observed birth anniversaries of saints who were "born in Dalit families"-Sant Gadge Maharaj and Sant Ravidas.

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Mr Sharma told the media that the BJP was the "only party which cares for all communities and respects great leaders born in those communities."  It may be recalled that of the 195 candidates announced in the first list,  27 are SCs and 57 belong to the OBC.

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But then it's not only the BJP which has its eyes on Mayawati's shrinking base. The SP, which was known for its Muslim-Yadav(MY) combo was trying broaden its base by its "Pichcre Dalit Alpasankhyak (PDA)" combination.

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The SP has also launched its "Ambedkar Vahini" to target the Jatavs and the smaller Dalit groups.