While securing landslide victories in Delhi's assembly elections and making significant inroads in Punjab, AAP faced humiliating losses in Delhi's Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and 2019.

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Now, Kejriwal is attempting to etch another chapter in the annals of political history by governing from behind bars following his recent arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in connection with the Delhi excise policy scam.

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Although Kejriwal is not the first chief minister to face legal troubles while in office, his decision to continue governing from jail sets him apart from his predecessors. Figures like J Jayalalithaa, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Uma Bharti and Hemant Soren opted to resign when confronted with similar circumstances, displaying a sense of decency that seems lacking in Kejriwal's approach.

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However, Kejriwal has always been a maverick in the political arena. Since founding AAP over a 11 years ago, he has sought to carve out his own rulebook, often challenging conventional wisdom and norms.

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Despite numerous summons from the ED and the Delhi High Court's refusal to halt his arrest, Kejriwal's determination to govern from confinement reflects his unwillingness to let anyone emerge to handle the government and the party.

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To him, it may have been just an extension of what he did in January 2014 during his first stint as the Delhi chief minister when he organised a sit-in protest along with his entire cabinet and ran the government from the pavements of Vijay Chowk much to the embarrassment of the then Manmohan Singh government.

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This particular protest was organised just a few days ahead of the Republic Day celebrations. Probably that was Kejriwal’s way of letting the world know that he was being victimised.

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Yet, there is a stark difference between orchestrating a government protest on the streets and attempting to govern from a jail cell. While Kejriwal may attract attention and sympathy from certain quarters, he must acknowledge that the constitution does not provide for governing from incarceration.

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If Kejriwal remains in custody, which seems likely for the foreseeable future, he may find himself transferred to Tihar Jail, joining his former deputy Manish Sisodia and AAP colleague Sanjay Singh - both arrested earlier by the ED in the same excise scam case.

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He will also have the company of some members of the South Group, especially K. Kavitha, a Bharat Rashtra Samithi lawmaker, and daughter of former Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao. The South Group is accused of giving ₹100 crore to AAP as a bribe to change Delhi’s excise policy and give them a monopoly of the capital’s alcohol market in 2020-2021.

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It is alleged that it caused revenue loss to the public exchequer to the tune of over ₹580 crore.

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In his bid to portray himself as a victim, Kejriwal risks damaging AAP's credibility and electoral prospects. Continued insistence on governing from jail could even lead to the imposition of President's Rule in Delhi, exacerbating the current governance vacuum - the governance has come to a standstill and the entire AAP machinery is out on the streets to demand his immediate release.

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Kejriwal's political journey has been marked by unpredictability and opportunism. From his origins in the anti-corruption movement to his meteoric rise to power in Delhi, he has repeatedly defied expectations and upended traditional political dynamics.

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His videos from the pre-November 26, 2012 era (that is before the AAP was launched) are already in circulation where he can be seen asserting that he would neither contest an election nor ever hold any position in the party that was born, after he successfully hijacked Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement. However, his recent alignment with the Congress party, particularly in light of his impending arrest, raises questions about his principles and motives.

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AAP emerged out of Hazare’s movement which in essence was to protest against the rampant corruption that the Congress party-led central government was accused of being involved in. AAP was seen as an emerging force against the Congress party. To his credit, Kejriwal has so far hurt the Congress party only, something that started with his first election in 2013.

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He made his electoral debut by announcing his candidature from the New Delhi assembly constituency of the then-popular Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit. Not only did Dikshit face an expected defeat, Congress was also reduced to just eight seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly after being in power for 15 years. BJP emerged as the single largest party in the hung assembly with 31 seats while AAP started with victories in 28 constituencies.

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Kejriwal displayed his opportunistic instincts when it willingly accepted the Congress party’s offer of outside support to form the government. Kejriwal became the chief minister and ruled Delhi for 49 days before resigning accusing Congress of interference.

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Congress might have thought that like in the past it would install a minority government and pull it down later on, but a shrewd Kejriwal turned the tables by projecting the Congress as the villain of Delhi. In the 2015 Delhi elections, AAP won 67 of the 70 assembly seats, BJP won three and Congress failed to open its account.

Likewise, a repeat was enacted in 2020 when the Congress once again drew a blank, BJP’s tally rose to eight and AAP's tally came down marginally to 62.

In Punjab also, AAP ousted the Congress party from power by winning 92 out of 117 seats in the 2022 state assembly elections. A few months later, AAP ensured that Congress ended up with its worst-ever performance in Gujarat when it could win just 17 seats in the 182-member assembly in 2022 as AAP polled 12.91 per cent votes enabling it to become a national party. Earlier the same year, BJP had reasons to thank AAP in Goa where its 6.8 per cent votes proved crucial between BJP’s victory and Congress getting defeated.

However, the growing lust for power and personal ambitions pushed Kejriwal to soon join hands with the Congress party, especially since his arrest had become imminent. AAP is now a constituent of the Congress-led I.N.D.I. Alliance to take on the BJP in the 2024 general elections.

Whether it was by accident or choice, the fact remains that all stalwarts were either forced out of APP or they opted to distance themselves. Kejriwal became the undisputed and unquestioned leader of AAP. AAP is a party with workers but with no leaders of stature in its ranks.

AAP's trajectory, too, has been turbulent. While initially heralded as a beacon of hope against corruption and dynastic politics, it now finds itself inextricably linked with Kejriwal's fate. The longer he remains incarcerated, the greater the challenges AAP will face in maintaining its relevance and electoral appeal.

As the 2024 general elections loom, AAP stands at a crossroads, grappling with the absence of its leader and uncertain about its future direction. Whether Kejriwal's absence will ultimately benefit the Congress party remains to be seen since like most regional parties, AAP too prospered at the expense of the Congress party. But one thing is clear: AAP's fortunes are inextricably tied to the fate of its enigmatic leader.

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