But the question mark that lingers, is over whether the Congress, which managed to garner a sizeable percentage of the vote of the Panchamsaali sect in the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community, can do it again? It was the shift in the Panchamsaali vote that saw it win 25-30 seats in the 2023 Assembly polls.

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Can it pull off a repeat, even in a fraction of the Lok Sabha seats?  The BJP strategists are determined to ensure that it does not happen again.  

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The 2023 setback was mainly due to the manner in which former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa was made to step down from office in 2022, when the BJP in Delhi cited his old age and replaced him with Basavaraj Bommai, who incidentally, is also a Lingayat but did not assuage the community's sense of outrage.

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But the Congress victory – a mere five years later - was a marked contrast to the manner in which the BJP had steamrollered all opposition in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in the state, winning 25 out of the 28 seats.

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Removing Yeddyurappa from office which saw the party run into rough weather in the 2023 Assembly elections was one factor. The shift in the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community to the Congress at least in some districts was largely due  to the anger over the BJP not fulfilling the community’s demands for a hike in reservation.

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The community had been pushing to be placed in a separate category that would have seen them garner even more benefits.

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The BJP’s alarm stems largely from the shift in the votes by the Panchamsaali sect in the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community to the Congress that saw it win some 30 to 40 seats, all of which had been the traditional seats of the BJP.  Apart from anger over the manner in which Yediyurappa was shunted out, the Panchamasali sect of the community, in particular, had been angered by Yediyurappa too, and his successor Bommai for not fulfilling their long-standing demands when they were in power.

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The Congress played its cards well, fanning the anger and promising the community that they would address their demands once they were voted to office. This is what swung the Veerashaiva-Lingayat votes towards the Congress, especially in areas dominated by the Panchamasali sect. The BJP's damage control exercise in bringing Bommai as the chief minister in place of Yediyurappa did not bring the Panchamsaalis back to the BJP fold.  

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The Congress’ announcement of five guarantees however, struck home, evoking the expected response from the voters, with the party winning 135 seats out of the total 224 in the Assembly polls.

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Realising their blunder, the BJP national leadership has now brought Yediyurappa back into the party’s inner circle, making him a member of the party's Central Parliamentary Board, giving his list of candidates for the Lok Sabha polls their stamp of approval. In addition, the party bosses also made BSY’s son, B Y Vijayendra, the state party chief. It was sending out the message that the party needed and valued the Veerashaiva-Lingayats and wasnt concerned over the 'dynast" slur.

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As is well known, the Veerashaiva-Lingayats had shifted to BJP after the Congress dropped Veerendra Patil in 1990 when he fell ill. The community would have backed the Congress had it appointed a Lingayat leader as Patil's successor at that point, but it did not happen, a seer told this correspondent on condition of anonymity.

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The seer also said all the other sects in the community would support the BJP in this poll, and strengthen the hands of Yediyurappa in pushing for  Vijayendra to take a leadership role as his father’s successor. But interestingly, he also threw in that while the Lingayats were pleased with the respect accorded to Yediyurappa by the BJP high command, there were no guarantees that the community would vote en masse for the saffron party as the Panchamasali sect continued to trust the Congress to fulfil their demands; Not so much, the BJP.  

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THE LINGAYATS OUTNUMBER ALL OTHER CASTES
Lingayats are estimated to make up about 16–17% of Karnataka's population, which makes up roughly 7 crore of the total population, the largest caste in the state.  They are concentrated  across North and Central Karnataka, and in South Karnataka

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LINGAYAT SWING VOTE Make or Break for Parties

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TIMELINE

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1990: BJP makes inroads into Karnataka after Congress's Lingayat chief minister Veerendra Patil is dismissed by Rajiv Gandhi.

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2007: B S Yediyurappa becomes the first BJP chief minister of Karnataka for a brief tenure. He returns to the top post after the 2008 elections.

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2011: Yediyurappa is sent to jail on corruption charges. D V Sadananda Gowda takes over as CM. After a Lingayat protest, Jagadish Shettar, a Lingayat, gets the top post.

2012: Yediyurappa launches Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) but it fails to make an impact.

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2014: KJP merges with the BJP.

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2018: Veerashaiva-Lingayats back BJP but the party fails to reach the numbers required to form the government on its own. The Congress-JDS coalition government's collapse then brings BJP to power again with Yediyurappa as the chief minister for the fourth time.

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2019: BJP wins 25 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

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2021: Yediyurappa is asked to step down. Basavaraj Bommai, another Lingayat, becomes the chief minister.

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2023:  A section of Veerashaiva-Lingayats drift away from BJP to Congress, which wins state assembly polls.

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